Kautilya Survey: AAP 14, BJP 11; Parrikar CM choice; hung Assembly

GOANEWS DESK, PANAJI | 13 August 2016 14:23 IST

An election survey by Kautilya has come out with startling results, giving majority 14 seats to Aam Aadmi Party in a hung Assembly, pushing the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party in the second position with 11 seats.

However, in a choice of chief minister, defence minister Manohar Parrikar is still the favourite while Maharashtrawadi Gomantak Party leader Sudin Dhawalikar gaining second position.

Chief Minister Laxmikant Parsekar figures nowhere while Goa Forward mentor Vijai Sardesai is the second last choice.

In a hung Assembly projection, the survey gives only 17 seats to the BJP-MGP combine 7 to anti-BJP Congress while 14 to AAP, which opposes BJP, MGP and Congress. Independents are only 2.

BJP       11

AAP 14

Cong 7

MGP       6



Ind         2







“The survey was conducted between April to July in all the 40 constituencies and 1640 polling booths among 80,000 respondents”, said Sankalp Chandelkar, founder of Advaita Teertha.

Voters have responded to the question which party they would prefer if election is held right now.

35% voters have opted for AAP with BJP is an option for 27%.

Though AAP gets 14 seats, 10 among it come from South Goa alone while only 4 from North Goa.

BJP gets 8 seats in the North and 3 seats in the South. This is a major slide down for the saffron brigade, from 21 in 2012 to 10 less today.  

MGP gets 3 seats each in both the districts, raising its tally from present 3 to 6.

Congress gets 4 in the South and 3 in the North, making it 7; 2 less than what they got in 2012.

Independents are also divided with 1 each in both the districts; almost 3 less than 2012.

Not a single seat for Goa Forward.

Chandelkar said they would name the constituencies after the second survey would be conducted in September and hopefully candidates are announced.

“As a Goan, even I am shocked with these survey findings. But we have to respect what voter says”, he says.

Following are the graphs in detail:   



To choose the chief ministerial candidate, Chandelkar says a committee proposed 10 names based on their past performance, calibre, ex-CM status, intelligence, administrative experience etc.

“The voter was given two options, one with Manohar Parrikar and another without him”, he said.

The other nine names are Laxmikant Parsekar, Rajendra Arlekar, Damu Naik (all BJP), Sudin Dhawalikar (MGP) Pratapsing Rane, Digambar Kamat, Vishwajeet Rane (all Congress), Vijai Sardesai (Ind) and Elvis Gomes.



Kautilya plans to conduct four more phases with 50% weightage to ground survey while rest half through SMS, social media and online poll.

It includes special report on Know Your MLA, poll projections as well as exit poll. 

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Previous Comments

What about Shivsena?

- S Kulkarni, Nagpur | 14 th August 2016 22:19


Why Shripad Naiks name was not considered for cm post survey though he have mass acceptability than definately bjps position would improved.

- Suraj Naik, Ponda Goa | 13 th August 2016 18:59


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