SWOT Analysis Do Governo !

By Dr Oscar Rebello
11 July 2012 13:14 IST

The analogy may not be totally appropriate but it comes close.

The “Revolutions” in Egypt and Goa!

Look at the similarities:- In Egypt you had Hosni Mubarak and his entrenched, corrupt  and tyrannical cronies. In Goa, you had the entrenched and corrupt Generals of the Congress (o.k. they didn’t kill their own people if you discount death by mining dust and truck accidents that is and Digambar bab never wore dark glasses like Hosni)

In Egypt you had a spontaneous people’s revolution demanding transparency, dignity and grass roots democracy. Ditto  for Goa as agitations against RP, SEZ, Mining et al unfolded. In both cases this secular spontaneous upheaval could not throw up a leadership to “politically” take the issue forward and the hand wringing finger pointing, hair pulling and shirt tugging still continues in both places. (in Egypt, they are less abusive though ).

And finally the expected denouement. The fruits of the revolution were  harvested both in Egypt and Goa by the religion based parties who swear to  uphold secularism and the constitution. Mohammed Morsi of the Muslim  brotherhood  in Cairo. Manohar Parrikar of the Hindutva brigade in Porvorim.

As in the land of the pharohs so too in the land of Parshuram everyone waits with bated breath to see if the “Revolution” has really won.

Time then after the much  tom tommed 100 days of the BJP to do a SWOT (Strengths; Weakness; Opportunities  and Threats ) analysis of the Government of the day.

STRENGTHS

(1) MANOHAR PARRIKAR; Needless to say, this is the fulcrum around which the creaky BJP ferris wheel revolves. The biggest advantage to the BJP this time  round is the fact that Monsieur Manohar has mellowed down considerably. Less finger wagging, less press gags, less “chase the Congress rabbit down the hole”. Easier, more media savvy and actually issuing an ultimation that he’s out of the rat race in 5 years. A needled, prickly hedgehog like  Monsieur Manohar is the best possible news ever for the dejected congress wolves prowling round the periphery.

(2) The MINORITIES : Much to the dismay of traditional “secularists” the buzz on the street is evident. The minorities (esp. Catholics in Salcete, a traditional Congress happy hunting ground) are more comfortable with Monsieur Manohar. That is a huge buffer for the BJP.  Some cynics argue that the Church in Goa is an even bigger supporter of the BJP today than the RSS. Ouch!

(3) MoI and MINISTERS : the trapeze  artist like walk through  the maze of MoI was smart, politically very smart. It left the extremists on all sides floundering the Congress dejected again. Also a brand new set of some squeaky sincere ministers and some comprehensively confused ones means that it’ll take a good 5 years for them to learn all the ropes which is all the good for Goa.

WEAKNESSES

(1)MANOHAR PARRIKAR: Just as he is this Government’s strength, he is also its biggest weakness.  The archetypal one-man army and demolition squad. So if a toilet has to be sanctioned in some department in Gaondongrem, the standard refrain is “Ask Bhaiee”

There is no other way. A second and third rung of the BJP will have to be given more responsibilities and allowed mistakes. Only then can a system minus Bhaiee possibly fall in place.

Also his health remains a serious issue. The story goes that concerned docs have advised Monsieur Manohar to go slow on account of his health travails. His response was typical : “Who knows health better? You doctors or the CM???

The doctors true to form, tucked their tails went in to their noble corners and watched a re-run of Aamir Khan on  “ Satyamev Jayate”.

(2) MINING DUMPS  : This is plain and pure hara-kiri. If  by legal means or by legendary BJP  spindoctoring the mining mafia and all its attendant horrors return to haunt us for a few petty crores  and future donations for the party), all the good will evaporate like an ice cube in the Sahara.

(3) The GSB SYNDROME : Again a street whisper (which I personally don’t agree with).

It is alleged that the GSBS, Bhatts and Christian elite are cornering all the pivotal and significant posts that guide important policy decisions. (backroom if you please) in the BJP and government.

Of course, these communities have some truly remarkable, dedicated and intelligent members but I hope that it’s  no one’s case that the rest of the Goa is made up of boneheads or duffers who cannot handle intellectually challenging portfolios and decisions.

OPPORTUNITES

(1)THE PEOPLE OF GOA : Perhaps naively they still cling to this “success” of their “revolution”. Newspaper edits and columns may be scathing and brutal, but ordinary people are far more trusting and patient. They should never be lost sight of as one plays the political chessboard.

(2) IMAGINATIVE INNOVATIONS : Schemes like Ladli Laxmi, Agriculture Fillips; etc must be delivered. There is a yawning difference between grandiose TV announcements and actual delivery on the ground (apropos the garbage menace in our urban areas)

(3) THE DISJOINTED OPPOSITION  : The Generals have been  emasculated alright but there’s still plenty of sauce left in their jewels (and money in Dubai or Zurich). Instead of only chasing them and castigating them  for all our ills, just deliver on better governance. They become redundant automatically.

THREATS

(1)THE OPPOSITION ACTIVISTS : There are many credible activists who after intense homework and research put out faults of this government in the public domain. For them  “parivartan” is nothing but old wine in a new    “bartan”. Don’t shoot these messengers. Listen to their message.

 (2)GRAMSABHAS  : The well meaning chaos that I’m sure will derail  most of the industrial initiatives;  Mopa,  garbage treatment plants, IT and education hubs and any other economic activity to fund all the populist schemes of this Govt.

How the Government  navigates this mine field will be interesting to watch.

Some finite and stringent rules and regulations for all players  will have to evolve. How? Don’t ask me. I lost my job the last time I attempted to answer this.

(3)The HOTHEADS: If any of the Hindutva hotheads suddenly get an inexplicable testtosterone surge and start vandalizing crosses, mosques or Portuguese sign posts, it’ll be time for this government to scream “MUMMY (not Victoria ) HELP”

The same chant Mohammed Morsi could of course screech if he goes down the Islamist path (his is a different Mummy )

Azad Maidan  may finally someday meet Tahrir square .

Blogger's Profile

Dr Oscar Rebello

Dr Oscar Rebello is one of the leading social activist of Goa and a practicing doctor. He led the historic peoples’ movement in 2006-07 to get the anti-Goa Regional Plan scrapped and save Goa from total destruction of Goa’s ecology and natural beauty. He is a Goa-based leader of Aam Aadmi Party. He is also a columnist.

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Previous Comments

Salaam Alequm ,dear Asif ,bhai ! Thanx ! ..but pl educate me ,how can this writer WARN our C.M. ? in what capacity ? to warn is a verb ,one uses , for criminals ,rogues and goondas ! ..and not our democratically elected representatives ..from any party .I can understand [a polite] CAUTION or a milder one suggest .. think ! Anyway ,thanks for taking trouble of posting your comment ..for your time..Shukriya !

- abdul, valpoi | 14 th July 2012 16:05

 

Mr abdul; the article by the writer actually praises parrikar but warns him of dangers that lie ahead

- asif, vasco | 13 th July 2012 12:35

 

the writer is equating the dictatorial regims of the arab world to democratically elected Parrikar`s govt.what an irony ! these arab murderers a la hitler have slaughtered lacs of our fellow muslims in cold blood...Gaddafi,Mubarak,Saddam,Mubaraq,Assad,...all of them the murderers of innocent muslims/children/women old and young...i sincerely believe this writer is frustrated because he has to live with the reality of Parrikar ruling democratically for next 5 years ....this writer is only used to corrupt congress ..so he cannot fathom this performing non-corrupt govt...unlike looters like Diggy,Alemaos,Babush,Ranes and the worst Ravi Naik.,he is used to.

- abdul, valpoi | 12 th July 2012 16:53

 

All he has to do is he should make Vishnu Wagh a Minister and all his problems would be solved. Parrikar should not have backstabbed Vishnu in first place, but let's forget that for time'being ; )

- Premanand Madkaikar, Madkai | 11 th July 2012 20:02

 

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